The Euro 2024 group stage is nearing crunch time, and after correctly sports betting against Italy in their last match, I’ve picked out the best bets for the final games of Group B using Expected Goals (xG) to highlight teams and players we expect to perform well.
Unless stated otherwise, I have bet one unit on each of the following selections.
ITALY VS. CROATIA ODDS
We’ve collected the best prices for the three-way moneyline, spread, and total goals.
ITALY VS. CROATIA BEST BETS
Croatia to Win (+220)
With Spain likely to beat Albania, the decisive match on the final day of Group B will see Croatia take on Italy. Croatia have one point to their name so far after conceding in the last minute to Albania on Wednesday. It was a game they deserved to win, amassing 2.74(xG) to Albania’s 1.54(xG), but Croatia must have all three points Monday for a berth into the Euro 2024 Knockout Stage bracket.
Meanwhile, the Italians sit on three points after narrowly defeating Albania and then being hammered by Spain on Thursday. Italy only created 0.18(xG) in that game, the third least of any team in any game at this year’s competition.
Croatia looks the value bet in this one based on their XG performances so far. They beat Spain on XG in their first match and performed much better against the Spanish outfit in terms of chance creation than Italy did.
Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
I like the look of Over 2.5 goals in this game at +100 or better. Croatia has created more xG than any other team in the tournament so far, at the time of writing (5.41). Meanwhile, they haven’t exactly been tight in defense. Their game against Albania saw 4.28(xG) amassed between the two sides – the third most of any game at Euro 2024 so far.
On the other side of the equation, Italy’s defense has also been weak. As already mentioned, they conceded plenty of chances against Spain and looked completely out of sorts at the back for large periods of that game.
Italy’s inability to create chances in their clash against Spain is a slight worry for this bet, but with both teams needing a win, we believe this will be an open game with lots of goals.
