Going into Grand Tour season, it seemed pretty cut-and-dry: Jonas Vingegaard would be racing for his third straight Tour de France title. Tadej Pogačar would be trying to unseat him and win his third Tour in five years.
Right alongside them would be four-time Grand Tour winner Primož Roglič who, with a new team in BORA-hansgrohe, would try to capture his first Tour de France title, a race he nearly won in 2020.
2024 Tour de France Betting Odds
Of course, there would be a few outsiders scratching at the gate, with riders like Carlos Rodriguez, Matteo Jorgenson, and Remco Evenepoel being given an outside shot to shock the cycling world and unseat the Tour’s two-headed monster of Jonas and Tadej.
Then the spring happened and a handful of ultra-violent wrecks threw everything into complete upheaval. Meanwhile, Pogačar dominated the Giro d’Italia, leaving many to wonder whether he burned too many matches and didn’t leave enough in the tank for the Tour.
But now, as we’re a little more than a week away from the Grand Départ in Florence and a few hours removed from Visma-Lease a Bike announcing Vingegaard will, in fact, race in the Tour, we have a slightly less murky picture of what we might expect.
Of course, given Vingegaard’s recent injuries and Pogačar’s recent Grand Tour victory, it’s still less clear than it has been in years past.
And so, we turn to Vegas, whose odds are often the best indicator of what to expect in a coming sporting event. After all, they have a lot of money riding on these events, so it’s in their best interests to get it right.
Advertisement – Continue Reading Below
We checked out the current (as of Monday, June 24) betting odds at three of America’s biggest online sportsbooks, to see who they thought might win the Tour de France.
2024 Tour de France Betting Odds
FanDuel
- Tadej Pogačar -240
- Jonas Vingegaard +220
- Primož Roglič +750
- Matteo Jorgenson +1800
- Remco Evenepoel and Carlos Rodriguez both at +2000
DraftKings
- Tadej Pogačar -190
- Jonas Vingegaard +200
- Primož Roglič +900
- Remco Evenepoel +1400
- Adam Yates +2800
- Carlos Rodriguez and Juan Ayuso are both at +3000
BetMGM
- Tadej Pogačar -160
- Jonas Vingegaard +200
- Primož Roglič +800
- Remco Evenepoel +1400
- Carlos Rodriguez and Juan Ayuso are both at +3300
So, what does this mean?
It means that FanDuel gives Tadej Pogačar more than a 70 percent chance to win this year’s Tour de France, as a money line of -240 translates to an implied probability of 70.6 percent. On the other side, Vingegaard has an implied probability of 31.3 percent. Meanwhile, Roglič’s implied probability is 11.8 percent and Jorgenson is at 5.3 percent with Evenepoel and Ayuso at 4.8 percent.
According to DraftKings and BetMGM, the race is shaping up to be a bit closer. DraftKings gives Pogačar a 65.5 percent chance to win, while it’s even lower on BetMGM with Pogačar having a 61.5 percent to win the Tour.
These odds are subject to change as the race goes on, especially if the race starts and Vingegaard shows great form. In that case, we might see the betting odds creep closer to last year’s when the race was a virtual toss-up.
Of course, if Pogačar puts a vice grip on the race early, as he did in the Giro, the odds will only get worse for everyone else.
